Overall record - day by day
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Overall10-6
Friday, Sep 252-1-0.87u
WOrioles ML5u+105
at Yankees G1
BAL 10, NYY 2
Never trailed. Scored first in the 3rd and stacked it to 10-2.
WGuardians ML5u-129
at Royals
CLE 12, KC 9
Bullpen day for CLE after a 3.1-IP start; the bats answered every KC push, including five in the 9th.
LAstros ML10u-172
at Athletics
ATH 6, HOU 5
Led 1-0 into the 6th, then ATH hung six. Rallied from 6-1 down to 6-5, but Smith K stranded the tying run on third in the 8th, and a 9th-inning walk died on a game-ending double play vs Harris (17th save). Beat the close, bad outcome.
What the system learned2-1, -0.87u. Baltimore and Cleveland were clean reads that won; Houston was the right price at the wrong outcome - led 1-0, gave up six in the 6th, rallied from 6-1 down to 6-5, and the last two threats died on a strikeout with the tying run on third and a game-ending double play. The +437 parlay died with the Houston leg. Pricing discipline held: all three picks beat or matched the Kalshi close.
Thursday, Sep 242-1+0.80u
WYankees ML5u-156
vs Rays
NYY 6, TB 4
Won, but the line moved against us before first pitch (closed near -138). Right result, losing price - noted.
WDiamondbacks ML5u-193
at Rockies
ARI 12, COL 8
Beat the closing price by 3.1 points and won a slugfest. Best read of the day.
LRed Sox ML5u-131
vs Guardians
CLE 1, BOS 0
READ FAILURE. Assumed a bullpen game, Cantillo dealt a shutout, and the lefty split was never checked. This pick is now the standing reference case for what the gate must verify before a card ships.
What the system learned2-1 with the loss named plainly: Boston was a process failure, not bad luck - an assumption shipped where a check belonged, and it cost 5u and the +339 parlay with it. The rule that came out of it: probable pitchers and splits get verified, never assumed. Arizona beat the close, the Yankees won at a worse-than-close price, and the day finished +0.80u.
Wednesday, Sep 232-0+7.88u
WDiamondbacks ML5u-150
at Rockies
ARI 5, COL 3
Cashed, but the thesis said the Rockies rookie would get hit and the win actually came from unearned runs and the bullpen. Right side, wrong mechanism.
WWings -10.55u-110
at Storm (WNBA)
DAL 103, SEA 91
Won by 12 and covered by a point and a half. The form read on Dallas's turnaround season held.
What the system learnedPerfect day, 2-0, +7.88u. Honest note even in a sweep: the ARI win came through a different door than the thesis predicted (unearned runs, not the rookie getting hit), so the system now requires a direct confirmation path when a pick leans on one pitcher imploding. Wins get audited too, not just losses.
Tuesday, Sep 224-4-14.44u
LBraves ML5u-178
vs Reds
CIN 4, ATL 0
Shut out at home. The bats never showed up - a read failure, not a bad beat.
WDiamondbacks ML5u-186
at Rockies
ARI 7, COL 2
Clean read. Arizona handled a last-place team exactly like a -186 favorite should.
WPhillies ML5u-133
vs Brewers
PHI 6, MIL 4
Form read held up.
LCubs ML5u-194
vs Marlins
MIA 8, CHC 2 (F/12)
Blew up in extras. Second blowout loss of the day against a heavy price.
LMariners ML5u-127
vs Astros
HOU 7, SEA 0
Another shutout loss. Two of the four losses were 0-run games.
WMystics8u-1567
vs Sun (WNBA)
WAS 79, CON 69
Won easily but earned +0.51u on 8u risked - that is the math on huge chalk.
WAces8u-1329
vs Sparks (WNBA)
LV 89, LA 79
Same story: +0.60u on 8u risked.
LValkyries7u-1011
at Fire (WNBA)
POR 90, GSV 82 (OT)
The expensive one. A -1011 lost in overtime and took 7u with it - more than six times what both WNBA wins paid combined.
What the system learnedSplit the day 4-4 and still lost 14.44u. The three MLB losses were two shutouts and a blowout - read failures the gate has to catch earlier. The WNBA lesson was pure math: massive minus prices risk a lot to win pennies, and one overtime loss at -1011 cost more than six times what both WNBA wins paid. Chalk sizing rules tightened from this day.